There are no hard statistics on this that I’m aware of. And I can’t speak to everywhere across Texas, only my own personal experience practicing in Harris County and the surrounding area.
In my experience, an accuser recants their allegation of a sexual assault less than 5% of the time. It’s far less common than recantations in regular assault cases. It’s rare that an accuser will flat out say, after a charge is filed, that they made up the sexual assault entirely or that sex happened but it was consensual. More often, an accuser will simply not want to talk to either the State or defense and not want to participate in the case at all. But in most sexual assault cases, the accuser is going to want to move forward with the case.
In the minority of cases where the accuser recants or doesn’t want to cooperate, that doesn’t mean that the State is going to dismiss the case. While it does increase the chances of a dismissal, the State is still going to go forward with the case if it believes that there’s enough independent evidence to prove it without the accuser’s cooperation.
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